Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

As the British invasion (variant B117) threatens, positivity rates and new case numbers stagnate while the R number slowly rises.

Though numbers are currently small, a new study confirms the variant will likely be dominant by March. I am reminded me of Peter Khoury’s writing on the challenges of thinking about exponential growth, here and here.

In case you were worried, there are no new variants to the standard nepostic practices at the Department of Building Inspection.

And Naomi, taking her cue from Nikolai Gogol, counts souls in San Francisco.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

As of February 6, over 12 percent (87,942) of San Francisco residents over 18 have received one dose, while over 3 percent (23,854) have received two. On February 6, 4213 shots were delivered, and the seven day rolling average of shots per day increased to 4,046. The DPH goal is 10,000 shots per day.  NOTE:  Some say the side effects of the second dose tend to be worse than the first.

Whether B117 has taken over the City, or Newsom’s rapid reopening has taken effect, estimates for San Francisco’s R Number are beginning to rise. While Covid-19 R Estimation for California estimates .85, while the ensemble figures .79. Estimates for California’s R Number range from .68 to .94 averaging out to .78.

Between January 6 and February 4, DPH reported 505 new cases in the Mission or 84.7 cases per 10,000 residents. During that month Bayview Hunters Point had 609 new cases, or 162 new cases per 10,000 residents, while the Tenderloin had 347 new cases or 117.9 new cases per 10,000 residents. The Citywide rate for the month was 67.6 new cases per 10,000 residents.

Not much change in the average new case numbers. For the week ending January 31, the seven-day average of daily new cases was  143, or 16.2 new cases per day per 100,000 residents

Based on it’s resident population, for the month of January, Latinx residents had a case rate of 192.56. The rate in December was 241.39.  In January the Citywide rate was 81.3 while in December it was 95.6.  

Hospitalizations took a dip, though ICU cases are still higher than the summer peak. Today’s numbers include 1 ICU transfer, and 1 Acute Care transfer. For the week ending February 6, the rate of weekly change in Covid positive patients fell 7 percent.   During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds rose to 28 percent while Acute Care availability remained 21 percent. On February 6, DPH reports Covid patients accounted for 16 percent  of available ICU beds and 7 percent of Acute Care beds. 

A look at the crisis in Los Angeles shows how well our privatized and decentralized hospital system works. Or not.

The Citywide average positivity rate remains around 3 percent. Between December 5 and February 5, Mission residents had a positivity rate of 5.12 percent, based on 33,657 tests.

 It should come as no surprise that community based contact tracing and isolation support works best. That’s happening now in the Mission, but why did the City take so long to implement it.

 As a consequence of the recent surge, the City’s case fatality rate (CFR) has risen to 1.07 percent.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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