Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

It’s great to wake up to a miracle. Especially when we’re facing a trifecta of trouble.

Still waiting for the Vaccine? Intrepid Director of DPH, Dr. Grant Colfax, gave us a brief preview of the slow roll out coming “soon” to SF.

Though DPH may have its problems, especially when it comes to communication, at least it’s not the DBI. (btw, a friend told me if you need something from DBI, be sure to bring bottle of Old Bushmill’s with you).

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Between December 4 and January 2, DPH reports 768 new cases among Mission residents  for a total of 3072, or 51.5 cases per 1000 residents. During that period, Bayview Hunters Point exceeded the Mission with 787 new cases! Excelsior had 579, Outer Mission 320, Tenderloin 302, Bernal Heights 236, Castro 121, Potrero Hill 119, Hayes Valley 103, Mission Bay 101, and Glen Park 51 new cases.

Are SF hospitalizations levelling off? Maybe. Today’s numbers (as of January 4) of 60 ICU patients include 2 ICU transfers and suspected as well as confirmed Covid patients.  For the week ending January 4, the weekly change in Covid positive patients rose a modest  8 percent. During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and for Acute Care beds 31 percent. On January 3, DPH reports SF hospitals had 83 ICU beds and 421 Acute Care beds available. 

 

Though case numbers and positivity rates are rising, estimates for San Francisco generally place the R number at 1.05, indicating the virus spread may be stabilizing. Though not as uniform, estimates for California also indicate a more stable spread, ranging from .92 to 1.11.

Though not surging, case numbers continue going up. On December 29, the seven-day average of new cases rose to 252, or 28.9 daily cases per 100,000 residents

During December, 3151 Latinx residents tested positive for the virus, representing 38 percent of all December cases. Whites had 1820, Asians 1693, Blacks 443, Multi-racial 168, Native American 28, Hawaiin and Pacific Islander 12 while “Other” and “Unknown” had 897 positive tests in December.

Apparently, the holiday spirit did not include Covid tests. For the week ending December 29, the average number of daily Citywide tests was 6530, down from 9290 a week earlier.

Covid may be swamping hospitals, but not the City’s contact tracers. Despite holidays, high case numbers, hospitalizations and positivity rates, DPH reports that during the two weeks ending January 1, its tracers interviewed 75 percent of  those who tested positive, and reached 75 percent of their contacts. Given these numbers, you might expect the DPH to have a fair idea of where and how people are getting infected. If so, beyond warning to limit social gatherings, they won’t tell us or share the data.

San Francisco’s death toll has now surpassed 200. Of the 203 deaths, DPH reports 151 had one or more underlying conditions, and 4 had none.  As for the other 48, it’s “unknown.”

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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