Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

Remember when the goal was to “flatten the curve?” OK, we flattened the curve. But as we’ve learned in SF, without a “robust”, or merely adequate, test-trace-isolate strategy, the curve doesn’t stay flattened.

Why is California leading the country and the world in coronavirus disaster? Here’s one reason.

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Between December 1 and December 30, DPH reports 816 new cases among Mission residents  or 13.7 new cases per 1000 residents.  About two-thirds the size, Bayview-Hunters Point had approximately the same number cases, 802, or 21.5 cases per 1000 residents.

Approximately 25 percent of SF Covid hospitalizations are in ICU. For the week ending January 1, the weekly rate of change in Covid positive patients  increased 21 percent. Despite the surge and the impact on ICU, DPH reports adequate availability. During the week ending January 1,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 34 percent and for Acute Care beds 31 percent. On January 1, DPH reports SF hospitals had 106 ICU beds and 495 Acute Care beds available.   Beds may be available, but are they staffed?

It seems holiday data delays may have muddled the R number picture. Covid-19 R Estimation for California has revised its lower numbers from last week and now estimates the SF R number at a substantial 1.24. As usual this estimate tends to be higher than others. An ensemble of other models still pegs the SF R number at 1.04.

Most likely yesterday’s low number was due to a low amount of tests recorded on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. On December 26, the seven-day average of new cases per day, though still lower than a couple days ago, rose again to  219, or  approximately 25.2 new cases per 100,000 residents

Of 7992 total cases reported in December, Latinx had 2902, Whites 1640, Asians 1521, Blacks 407 and Multi-racial 135.

Of the 34,583 tests recorded among Mission residents over the past two months, the average positivity rate was 4.23 percent.

Although deaths increased by approximately 21 percent, the Case Fatality Rate has declined to .8 percent.

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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  1. The stat for new deaths is zero, how does that work? Thanks so much for gathering this data. I appreciate it!

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