Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.

With the virus more prevalent than ever in San Francisco, new virus variants and a vaccination on the way (tomorrow morning for sure), UCSF’s Dr. Bob Wachter discusses individual risk management.

Clara-Sophia joins Guillermo Vasquez bringing food from his farm on Treasure Island to a Mission food bank.

Farewell to Q.R. Hand, Mission poet and healthcare worker. RIP.

Wait. Did someone say burgers?

Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.

Covid-19 R Estimation dropped its estimate of San Francisco’s R Number to 1.09, below 1.1 for the first time since December 27. The ensemble figures 1.02.  Estimates for California’s R number range from .83 to 1.05 for an average of .95

Numbers for the most recent thirty-day period fell a bit more. Between December 17 and January 15, DPH reports new cases in the Mission dropping to 789 or 132.3 new cases per 10,000 residents. The new case count in Bayview Hunters Point also dropped, though not as much, to 847 new cases, or 225.17 new cases per 10,000 residents. Other neighborhoods also saw a mild drop in new cases: Excelsior 605, Visitacion Valley 358, Tenderloin 358, Bernal Heights 255, Western Additon 206, Castro 139, Hayes Valley 132, Mission Bay 113, Noe Valley 112, and Glen Park 33 new cases. 

Although the virus remains plentiful in SF and continues spreading, the average number of new cases continued to slide off its most recent peak.  For the week ending January 11, the seven-day average of new cases dropped to 333, or 38.3 daily new cases per 100,000 residents

Working the most vulnerable jobs and living in the most crowded spaces, the situation for the City’s Latinx population remains dire.  Through January 16, Latinx residents have a case rate of 934 per 10,000 residents. In comparison,  Pacific Islanders have 728, Native Americans 624, Blacks 361, Multi-racial 180, Whites 171 and Asian 163 per 10,000 residents

Today’s numbers include 2 ICU and 2 Acute Care transfers. For the week ending January 17, the weekly change in Covid positive patients again dropped  1 percent.  During that week,  the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 24 percent and for Acute Care beds 23 percent. On January 17, DPH reports  Covid patients (confirmed and suspected) accounted for 21 percent of the ICU population and 12 percent of those in Acute Care. 

 

Positivity rates from the 24th Street BART testing station are substantially higher than the Citywide average. As of yesterday, 4553 tests were collected with a 9.77 percent positivity rate. Latinx accounted for 3329 of those tests, with a positivity rate of 11.02 percent. Non-Latinx tests had a positivity rate of 6.37 percent, almost 2 percentage points higher than the Citywide average. 

The statewide positivity rate continues to fall. Slowly.

In the recent surge, new cases among Whites have notably risen in proportion to other population groups, as did Asians to a lesser extent.

The proportion of Covid deaths in which it is “unknown” whether or not there was one or more underlying  condition has grown to 26 percent. Given that deaths are generally reported (after at least a week) by medial providers and the medical examiner, this is a head scratching figure which keeps increasing. It could be that the “unknown” deaths are those without health insurance or a health plan. Of the 262 deaths, 187 had one or more underlying condition, and 7 had none. 

Mark Rabine

Mark Rabine has lived in the Mission for over 40 years. "What a long strange trip it's been."

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1 Comment

  1. The 50% more contagious Covid strain has reached San Jose only 40 miles south of San Francisco but I don’t see Mission Local mention of it.

    What’s up, doc?

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