Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
As noted before, the local virus spread appears to be plateauing, albeit at a very high plateau. Mission Local reports generally on trends and numbers from a week ago (which DPH concedes are “more reliable”), expected data delays should not be apparent yet.
Local health officials and experts, without data, generally point to small private gatherings as the cause of the recent spike. They rarely mention workplace outbreaks. An exception was at the end of a long piece on the ICU crisis, when the Chron quoted Bela Matyas, health director of Solano County, who said “I can’t tell you how many workplaces we’ve seen where people came in sick.” He cited retail and grocery stores. For the most part, county officials, like in San Francisco, keep workplace outbreaks a secret.
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Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
Between November 23 and December 22, DPH reports 705 new cases in the Mission for aĀ total of 2776 cases, or 46.5 cases per 1000 residents.Ā During that period, Bayview-Hunters Point had 713, Excelsior 532, Sunset/Parkside 408, Castro 143, Western Addition 129, Potrero Hill 95, Glen Park 50 and Chinatown 47.
DPH reports a small decline in confirmed and suspected Covid patients in SF hospitals. These numbers are of December 24, so may reflect a data delay more than reality. On December 24, DPH reports SF hospitals had 93Ā ICU beds and 560 Acute Care beds available.Ā For the week ending December 24, the weekly rate of change in Covid positive patients wasĀ 12 percent.Ā During that week, the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 30 percent and for Acute Care beds 25 percent. Ā DPH continues to report 100 percent of required PPE on hand.Ā DPH does not report on staffing, nor on the cases and deaths among hospital and healthcare workers.
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Estimates for San Francisco’s R numbers remain aroundĀ 1.15. For California, the range is between .91 and 1.3.
As of December 18, the seven-day averageĀ of new cases per day again dropped a bit to 282 cases or 32.4 new cases per 100,000 residents. What gifts the holidays may bring the virus will be unknown for a while.
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A good sign that even though more tests have been collected, the Citywide average positivity rate is falling from recent highs.
A falling positivity rate may also be true around the State, but it’s far too soon to tell.
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As ofĀ December 23, the December Citywide case rate (based on population) was 65.8. For Latinx the rate was 155.9, for Blacks 67.1, Asians 35 and Whites, 33.5.
DPH considers the 181 figure to be “less reliable” meaning it’s somewhat higher. Approximately 40 percent of deaths nationally have been skilled nursing facility residents and staff. In San Francisco, 22 percent of the deaths were residents of skilled nursing facilities. DPH does not report on deaths (or cases) among staff.
Excellent Reporting! Thank you.
One thing to say: I live in the Mission and work in the TL. I respect you all, but can’t fathom why you would leave out the TENDERLOIN.