Good Morning, Mission! Welcome to Virus Village, your daily Covid-19 data dump.
With people travelling and a Supreme Court decision banning restrictions on religious services, the virus has plenty to be thankful for.
No surprise to see numbers beginning to spike in neighborhoods other than the usual suspects. As City officials are quick to note, residents have let down their guard, but we should also acknowledge the lack of a robust test-trace-quarantine program along with problematic tactics and messaging.
Scroll down for today’s Covid numbers.
Between October 25 and November 23, the Mission logged 317 new positive Covid cases, bringing the total to 2049, or 34.4 cases per 1000 residents.
After a few days of falling, the model we use currently estimates the San Francisco R number rising again above 1.4. That may be on the high side, but looking at the steep rise in cases and other models, there is no reason to doubt the virus continues to be rapidly spreading.
We’re in the thick of it. For the week ending November 19, the seven-day average number of Citywide daily cases jumped to 130 or 14.9 cases per 100,000 residents. Without a robust test-trace-quarantine progam, there seems little the City can do to control the spread other than order another shelter-in-place.
The surge is a Citywide phenomenon, with case numbers not seen since July. Yet contact tracing data provided by DPH remains oddly consistent, claiming to reach an average of 87 percent of positive cases and 84 percent of contacts over the two weeks ending November 6.
It’s unclear why, with a record number of tests collected, the seven-day average Citywide positivity rate (as of November 19) remains relatively low. Though reports show in recent days the rate may have even decreased, DPH regards these reports as “less reliable.”
The jump in California’s average positivity rate is in line with the record number of cases. In all likelihood, Thanksgiving will add to the growth.
The SF hospital system may be severely tested over the next month. Over the past month, hospitalizations for confirmed and suspected Covid patients have doubled. For the week ending November 24, the rate of change in Covid positive patients soared by 69 percent. For the time being, hospitals appear to have the requisite capacity. During that week, DPH reports the seven-day average availability of ICU beds was 30 percent and for Acute Care beds 26 percent. DPH reports 100 percent of required PPE is on hand.
San Francisco first recorded its 160th death on November 17. DPH reports only 83 percent of the deaths had one or more underlying condition. However, another 15 percent were “unknown.”
Over a quarter of the cases have been contracted by residents between the ages of 18 and 30. Only 6 percent were contracted by residents over the age of 70.