Developments in Development: Departures

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Developments in Development is a “weekly” column recapping real estate, housing, planning, zoning and construction news.

I don’t want to ring the doomsday bells yet but since the news of the week seems to be that forty percent of Bay Area residents are considering leaving, let’s look at the gloom.

The cost of living, of course, is one of the main reasons people are hoping to leave. And unsurprisingly, a lot of those people are young. Like Curbed and others reporting on this note, that doesn’t necessarily mean that any of us disgruntled young’uns are actually going to follow through on our threats.

If some of the comments on this SFist piece are any indication, the city seems to be unperturbed by the idea of a bunch of millennials absconding. But, just like when a similar poll last year found about a third of local residents were considering flight, it’s worth looking at who has actually left already rather than who says they want to go: It’s mostly the working class being forced out.

Even as some ponder escape, others are finding that the home sale boom of 2016 might be fizzling a little. SocketSite reports that home sales in San Francisco are at a five-year low. One point that should be taken into consideration is that the peak figures might have been affected by a flood of condos coming online at the same time. Still, Socketsite notes “The median price paid… was 2.0 percent lower than at the same time last year and 13.8 percent below the record…in April of 2016”

Are we seeing a slowdown on the supply side as well? On one hand, as suggested last year at the time of a tumultuous community meeting, a project planned for what’s currently a laundromat is seeking a height boost up to 75 feet under the state’s density bonus law. It would go from 55 to 75 units. That said, here’s another story of a site where developers originally pursuing housing are now putting the lot up for sale – following this recent retreat.

So is there perhaps a general dismay with the state of things?

Supervisor Malia Cohen was certainly feeling dismayed this week. She went on a social media tirade about some impressively awkward ads for new Bayview housing.

“Come grow with us as Bayview becomes the next Mission,” the ad invites, with text over an image of a guy watching some models pretend to work out. (One of them doesn’t even have her hair tied back – come on now y’all.)

Bizarre faux workout photo aside, the suggestion that gentrification like that of the Mission is a good thing for the Bayview, and that people should move into high-end new homes to hasten that fate, did not sit well with Cohen.

“I would politely advise @WaterbendSf, and their ad consulting team, to get a firm understanding of the word “columbusing.” she wrote on Twitter.