Pregame: Obsession
If you want an advantage, measure whatever you can, said Sun Tzu in “The Art of War.” Little did he know.
From the days of the earliest printed box scores (1845), legions of baseball fans have obsessed over numbers and in the past 160 years, an entire industry has grown up around the production, dissemination and analysis of data. The numbers promise to quantify how good a player really is, how he matches up against others, how valuable he is compared to a replacement. On Saturday night, Barry Zito reminds me of this.
Inning One: The Caribbean Connection
The only team in the majors Zito has never beaten is his old team, the Oakland A’s. Not only has he never beaten the A’s, his Earned Run Average (ERA) over the games he’s pitched against them is close to 9, as in a run per inning. In his last game against them three weeks ago, he gave up nine hits and six runs in 6.2 innings. His opposite number tonight is Ben Sheets, who has struggled since signing a one-year $10 million contract with the As.
The first inning goes to neither pitcher, but to Giant hitters, specifically two of their starting Latinos, Andres Torres and Juan Uribe. It was only after the Giants had been humiliated in Oakland that manager Bruce Bochy moved Torres into the lead-off position in the batting order. Since then, he’s had impressive stats, especially his on-base percentage (obp) – hits plus walks plus hit by pitch, divided by at-bats plus walks plus hit by pitch. Over the past week, Torres has had magnificent .500 obp.
Zito calls him a “catalyst” – his non-stop work ethic and dynamic energy have affected the whole team. The third pitch Torres sees tonight, he raps into the left field corner for a double. Freddy Sanchez and Aubrey Huff move Torres to third, which brings up the omnipresent Uribe, from the Dominican Republic, who has been outstanding in the last couple weeks. (An obp of .485 for the last week.) He hits a line shot up the middle bringing in Torres who is almost home before Uribe leaves the batters’ box.
Inning Two: The Bats of June
A’s right fielder Matt Carson does not have impressive hitting stats. His batting average coming into tonight’s game? A perfect zero. Zito throws two fastballs that don’t exceed 80 mph (not his best pitch), the second of which Carson takes to the house. In the bottom of the inning, Zito comes to the plate with the Panda on second and one away. Yesterday I watched Zito take batting practice. He was stong, determined, anxious to hit. Now he can take back what he just gave away. He strikes out. But that only brings up Torres again, and if Sheet isn’t careful — Torres singles to right scoring Sandoval.
Inning Three: Statistical Oddity
Freddy Sanchez leads off the inning by beating out a ball that was slightly bobbled by shortstop Cliff Pennington. Sanchez beats the throw by a hair. Incredible. Even more incredible when you consider Sanchez was born with a club foot. His other foot was pigeon-toed. The doctors told his mother he’d never walk. And how could they know he would be driven all the way home four pitches later when Huff hits a fastball into deep center.
Inning Five: Moneyball
Zito reminds me after the game that the A’s have been the great practitioners of statistical baseball over the past two decades. First with Sandy Alderson, then Billy Beane, it’s fair to say that the A’s took statistics to a new level, changing the way in which major league baseball teams were put together (chronicled in Michael Lewis’ “Moneyball”). Going beyond the conventional numbers such as batting average and runs-batted -in, the A’s looked at a player’s on-base percentage; not only how many hits, but how many times he got on base. By this measure, a walk can be considered as good as a hit. Despite a flood of other measurements, on-base percentage is considered by many today’s most important statistic (especially when combined slugging percentage).
Inning Six: Look At His Feet
Zito looks tired. Going into this inning, he’s thrown 88 pitches, 60 strikes. He makes small alterations in his footwork; the A’s hit the ball hard, but directly to Giant outfielders. Zito throws just four pitches. In the bottom of the sixth, the Panda hits a homer over the 382 marker in left center. He’s not tired either and the Giants lead 5-1. Game over.
Inning Seven: A’s Fan Heads for Ferry
With two out and a full count to pinch hitter Adam Rosales, Zito serves up another slow fastball which Rosales puts into the bleachers. But no further damage is done as Daric Barton strikes out to a standing ovation. Game really over. An A’s fan tosses in the towel. “No hitters, just a bunch of guys who can walk,” he grumbles as he packs it in.
Inning Eight: The Virtues of Patience
A parade of three Giant relievers give up four walks and two more runs, leaving the bases loaded and the game in the balance for Brian Wilson. A shocking turn of events, but Zito said later he was not surprised . “They’re a dangerous team,” he said. “It’s the organization; they’re trained to be patient, the whole ‘on-base-percentage’ thing. If you don’t throw strikes, they’ll make you pay.”
With the game suddenly on the line, Brian Wilson throws strikes. Later he would say he prepares himself mentally in such situations. How? He walks and thinks, “I’ve been in this situation before; I’ve been in all situations. I tell myself I’m either going to succeed or fail. I prefer to succeed; I earn more and I like being a hero.”
It works! Giants 5 A’s 4.