If you live closer to Dolores Street, you’re more likely to vote. If you live around South Van Ness Avenue, it’s less likely you’ll venture to the polls on Election Day.
This is what Mission Loc@l found by looking at the Mission’s voting patterns in the November elections between 2004 and 2010.
During that time an average of 55 percent of registered voters, or 16,217 Missionites, cast ballots each November. That makes the Mission decidedly average. Citywide, the average is 56 percent.
In Diamond Heights and Upper Market/Eureka Valley, 65 percent of registered voters cast ballots.
So we’re not doing as well as those folks, but better than Bayview Hunters Point. The latter had the lowest average voter turnout, at 43 percent.
The Mission, however, ranked below the statewide average. In statewide elections, which do not include 2007 and 2009, 61 percent of Mission voters cast ballots, versus a state average of 64 percent.
So far we’ve been talking about registered voters, but when it comes to the Mission’s entire voting-age population, most stay home on Election Day.
As of 2010, the Mission had a potential voting population — U.S. citizens over 18 years of age — of 37,974, according to the 2005-2009 American Community Survey. Of that number, only 40 percent cast ballots between 2005 and 2010.
And the Mission’s divided.
Precincts west of Valencia Street near Dolores Park had the highest turnouts, with precinct 3849, which lies between Dolores and Guerrero streets and 24th and 22nd streets, leading the way at 62.86 percent.
Precinct 3842, which has a small section in the Mission but is mostly in Noe Valley, had an average voter turnout of 70 percent.
East of Mission Street, Mission Loc@l found the lowest turnout in precinct 3646, the blocks between Harrison and Treat streets and 16th and 20th streets. It averages only 47.43 percent. Precinct 3918, which lies between 25th and Cesar Chavez streets and Harrison and Mission streets, averages 48.14 percent.
Average turnout citywide remained high, partly due to the “Obama bump” in 2008, which brought 81 percent of voters citywide to the polls. In the Mission, 81 percent also went to the polls that year.
This is why the Mission is controlled by Bernal.Heights.