As San Francisco businesses slowly recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, one neighborhood remains stuck.
By the end of 2025, sales tax revenue from Bayview-Hunters Point remained some $100,000 below peak-pandemic levels.
Prior to the pandemic, the sprawling southeastern neighborhood had one of the fastest-growing commercial corridors and had begun to garner attention as an affordable, desirable location for restaurants in a city with notoriously high rent.
But since the pandemic, it has struggled to retain legacy businesses or attract new ones to Third Street. Business leaders point to a corridor that may be in the midst of a second transition. The first came in 2007 when foot traffic, and with it, the neighborhood’s sales, increased dramatically after the city installed the T-line, connecting the formerly isolated neighborhood to the rest of the city.
The second started as demographic changes in the previously majority Black neighborhood continued. At present, the neighborhood is largely Asian and Hispanic, with Black residents comprising only 23 percent of the population, according to the most recent census data.
The corridor doesn’t yet reflect that change, said Marcus Tartt, the director of the Renaissance Entrepreneurship Center’s Bayview location. “The businesses and to a large extent that corridor hasn’t adapted to provide the kind of services that is more reflective of the community.”
There are no Asian grocery stores on Third Street, for example, and many residents travel outside of the neighborhood for basic needs, resulting in “retail leakage.”
In the meantime, Bayview continues to bleed stores.
The beloved Telos Coffee is gone. So too are the more indispensable Lucky’s and Walgreens. Nowadays there remain just four grocery stores, one of which, D10 Market, is solely for low-income residents. No pharmacies remain.
Today, the corridor is lined with storefronts that appear vacant, though the Office of Economic and Workforce Development reports just a 7 percent vacancy rate on the corridor. This vacancy rate, however, does not include inactive businesses or those with limited business hours.
To be sure, gems remain including Frank Grizzly’s, Gumbo Social, All Good Pizza, Gratta Wines, and others. But for all, sales have swung wildly — recovery may appear close, and then, it disappears.
“It fluctuates a lot,” said Tartt, whose nonprofit provides training and support for small businesses. “It’s hard to say what we will see even a few months from now.”
In 2021, sales plummeted in the first quarter of the year, dipping by nearly $700,000 to $2.26 million, only to rise again in the second quarter of the year to above pre-pandemic levels at $3.05 million. Sales spiked once more in 2023, but since then, the neighborhood’s sales tax revenue has declined steadily.
Tartt attributes fluctuating sales to frequent business openings and closures. He hopes the neighborhood will soon become a culinary destination, but until that happens, slow foot traffic has made it difficult for the existing businesses.
Dontaye Ball, chef and owner of Gumbo Social and head of the Bayview’s Business Association, said the neighborhood was in this situation before the pandemic — and it will take a lot more than pandemic recovery to turn things around. Another explanation for its lackluster recovery is its location, said Ball. In the far southeast of the city, it’s somewhat isolated and it has long held a reputation as being less safe than other parts of the city.
“There’s no clear plan to drive people to 3rd Street,” said Ball, saying the city could help with that. “Once downtown is revitalized, I think Bayview should be next.”
Tartt said the neighborhood continues to have a reputation for being more dangerous — though crime has dropped significantly on the corridor, along with the rest of the city, in the past several years.
Theo Ellington, the interim director of the Ruth Williams Opera House and candidate for District 10’s upcoming election, said the numbers are “not a surprise.” Ellington said there’s been a lack of investment in the neighborhood’s businesses, especially compared to nearby Dogpatch, which appears to be thriving.
“You look at the corridor and it’s like a tale of two districts,” said Ellington, referring to the neighborhood north of Bayview’s Third Street. “The most straightforward way to fix that is to have more people.”
Developers have promised to build more housing along the waterfront, but several projects, such as housing proposed in the long-vacant Candlestick Point, have been stalled for years.
Ellington said that Bayview’s commercial corridor could be an ideal location for expanded housing. The Third Street Youth Center and Clinic recently opened 19 new units for transitional-aged youth above an abandoned coffee shop at 3900 Third St.
“If these projects move forward we will see the population growth that will help mitigate some of these low sales tax numbers,” said Ellington. “We’ve been waiting so long for progress, but ultimately, people are tired of waiting.”