The anti-eviction mapping project has posted new updates:
Key Findings
The number of evictions in 2013 has surpassed evictions in 2006, the height of the real estate bubble. Total no-fault evictions are up 17% compared to 2006. The rate of increase over the past year is especially troubling and the graph shows a sharp increase.
There has been a 115% increase in total evictions since last year. Ellis Act use has increased by 175% compared to the year before. The Rent Board does not collect information on how many bedrooms or how many people reside in a unit.
If each evicted unit here represents between 1 and 5 people, we estimate between 716 and 3580 residents were evicted within the last year. READ MORE and see the interactive maps here.
The all-important rate of increase is even sharper than in the previous two bubbles.
Anyone who knows how to read a graph knows this
means this crisis is even more severe than the previous two bubbles, and will soon approach previous bubble highs if we ignore the statistical evidence that the landlord elites want us to ignore.
Actually, the slope of the curve for the Ellis act evictions from ’98-’99 is much steeper then ’12-’13.
That’s statistical hogwash. The rates of growth from very low numbers will always be higher than from very large numbers, because graphs cannot go exponential for long.
But it’s the real numbers that count because that is what affects real lives.
Of course, if you really want to see low rates of growth, then you want to see very high absolute numbers, because then any rate of growth can only be much smaller.
Great to see that evictions are down so sharply. Hands off the Ellis Act.
And yet you omit to mention the one fact that is obvious from the graph. Evictions are way, way lower than 10-15 years ago.
Funny how they don’t mention that.
The “Project” didn’t bother with fault evictions, which are a considerably larger number, and which occur solely because of tenant bad behavior.
The number of evictions for non-payment of rent, late payment of rent, and unauthorized pets and sub-tenants is far greater. But you’d never know that reading the “Project”.
‘fault evictions’ (e.g. breach of lease and nuisance) are up significantly 2x since a few years ago. Are tenants all of sudden massively misbehaving? Highly doubtful … Nonpayment and late payment of rent is actually a separate category and those numbers are at historical lows. BTW paying rent with a check does not guarantee a record of timely payment since the only record is when the check is cashed and that is up to the landlord. One solution is direct deposit. This is only one of the many sneaky ways in which law abiding tenant can lose their home when landlords are bent on getting rid of them …
Amazingly Ellis and OMI are down since recent peaks – the interpretation is that these are bad for the property value hence other evictions and tenant coercion practices are much more favorable for landlords. So all of the hoopla about Ellis evictions and the law are a diversion from the true eviction and affordability crisis …
Here is a link to the rent board data, page 30 — all in all nearly 2000 evictions in ’13 (and 25% more than ’12)– that’s a lot of people! No wonder there is
http://www.sfrb.org/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=2660
B2B, a couple of points there.
You are correct that the Rent board statistics provide a broader view of evictions than the subset of data that the “Project” used. However note that for “fault” evictions, there is no requirement for the LL to file the notice with the Rent Board. so my guess is that the SFRB understate those numbers, particularly for non-payment of rent cases, which happen very quickly for obvious reasons.
I’d include non-payment and late-payment in with “fault” evictions. They all stem from a tenant doing something wrong and which could have been avoided. From memory the categories are:
Non-payment of rent
Late payment of rent or check bouncing
Nuisance
Criminal or illegal activity
Tenant has refused reasonable access
Breach of the rental agreement
Holdover by unapproved subtenant
If “at fault” evictions are running higher, that may be because tenants are behaving worse. Or it may be that landlords have learned that “no good deed goes unpunished” and that a zero tolerance approach to violations is more apt.
Anyway my point was that the “Project” is looking in the wrong place.